Aged care wants to supersize – but who will staff it?

Aged care is having another “supersize me” moment – but the sector’s hottest growth story has a big problem.

This week’s Street Talk column lit up the market with talk that Pacific Equity Partners may merge Opal HealthCare with Estia Health. On paper, it’s a blockbuster: Opal’s 142 homes plus Estia’s 90 would create a 200-plus-home giant overnight.

It also follows The Living Co’s retirement living mega-move circling Keyton. Consolidation isn’t coming – it’s here. The number of residential aged care providers has already fallen 16% since 2018.

But while capital is ready, the workforce isn’t. Providers say applications are high, yet finding quality carers is harder than ever. One board director told me this week they’ve walked away from multiple acquisition opportunities purely because the local workforce “just doesn’t exist” where they want to purchase.

Even paying 10% above the award rate doesn’t help – agency staff are required to meet care minute targets at a significant outlay.

Another operator is deliberately building in lower socio-economic suburbs – not because that’s where RADs are strongest, but because that’s where staff actually live.

Workforce is now shaping feasibility as much as demographics. A merged Opal-Estia would offer career pathways through their respective academies and the stability of scale. But for everyone else, the maths is brutal: no staff, no build. That’s already stalling new beds nationwide.

So what’s the fix?

The Aged Care Industry Labour Agreements have delivered just 249 offshore workers in 2.5 years – a complete policy failure. CEDA is – rightly – calling for an Essential Skills Visa designed for care.

And while there is talk of AI displacing white-collar jobs and pushing workers toward care, speculation won’t staff a 24/7 roster today.

Workforce policy has to move beyond recruitment slogans to new models of work and housing – because if staff can’t afford to live nearby, they can’t do the job.

The sector is consolidating fast – but unless Australia confronts the workforce cliff, any major growth plans will quickly hit a brick wall.