The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners' Health of the Nation 2024 report paints a mixed picture for the future of GPs in Australia, revealing a significant increase in the number of GPs recommending general practice as a career but anticipated demand for GPs significantly outstripping supply, and a decline in the number of trainees.

The findings come from the RACPG Health of the Nation 2024 survey, which has been conducted for the last eight years, and this year included nearly 3,500 responses gathered between 10 April and 12 May.

In July, the Department of Health and Aged Care announed "incentive payments" to eligible GPs for providing regular visits to residents in residential aged care, after a RACGP survey found 54% of GPs do not want to visit aged care homes. 

Recommending GP as a career

The survey found that while the number of of GPs in Australia has increased every year since 2018, the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs decreased in 2023 to 29,215.

Overall, there are nearly 40,000 GPs in Australia. Nearly one third (32%) of current GPs plan to stop practising within the next five years.

On a more positive note, 73% of GPs said they are satisfied with their job, an increase from 66% in 2023. More doctors recommended general practice as a career, increasing from 38% in 2023, to 44% in 2024.

Shortage of 8,600 GPs in 24 years

Australian Government forecasts indicate Australia already has a shortage of GPs, and the nation's ageing population and high incidences of chronic disease mean the shortage will only worsen.

The Department of Health and Aged Care's Supply and Demand Study for GPs in Australia, released in August, estimates there will be a shortfall of more than 600 FTE GPs in 2024, increasing to more than 1,900 FTE in 2028, and 6,100 FTE by 2048.

This equates to a shortfall in the number of GPs of more than 800 in 2024, more than 2,600 by 2028, and by 2048 there will be a shortage of 8,600 GPs.

Data on medical student numbers provides little in the way of hope.

The percentage of medical students choosing general practice as a specialisation fell from 13% in 2022 to 10.5% in 2023, the RACGP survey shows.

"Green shoots"

In a speech to launch the report, the Minister for Health and Aged Care Mark Butler acknowledged the challenges. While noting the "green shoots of hope" contained in the data, he admitted "the pipeline is still pretty challenging".

Growth in the number of GPs "is something that we absolutely need", the Minister said.