Ansell flags new wave of exits under Support at Home
The Board Pack cautions that if formal pricing caps land as proposed – and rationing of Package numbers continues – providers’ ability to grow revenue organically will also be capped.
Ansell Strategic’s latest Board Pack warns Support at Home could further squeeze provider revenues and accelerate departures from the sector.
Its review of Support at Home Program (SAHP) pricing for some of the largest home care providers shows many are already quoting above the national median prices in the Government’s own Summary of Indicative Support at Home Prices.
The 20-page Board Pack cautions that if formal pricing caps land as proposed – and rationing of Package numbers continues – providers’ ability to grow revenue organically will also be capped.
Under those conditions, Ansell Strategic expects more SAHP operators to come under financial pressure, prompting exits and a further lift in home care mergers and acquisitions.
The warning comes as new data confirms the system is already running hot. Only 802 new residential aged care beds opened in FY25 against forecast demand of 10,000 per year, while mature RAC occupancy now sits around 94% – effectively full.
Managing Director Cam Ansell says the new Aged Care Act is stabilising the investment story but has not delivered the transformation promised by the Royal Commission.
“The long-awaited Aged Care Act offers the sector much-needed stability and a framework for forward planning,” he writes.
“But investment in new supply has slumped to record lows, and the Inspector-General has warned that current reforms, coupled with a rationed system, are likely to do more damage to older Australians than good. These dynamics create ideal conditions for well-governed and ambitious organisations to get ahead in this new era.”
For boards, the takeaway is clear: the real upside now lies in smarter consolidation, better capital decisions and models built to survive – and grow – in a rationed system.
Download the full Board Pack here.
