According to a study by Deloitte, the growth in new hospital beds over the next 15 years has stalled at around 95,990 beds. Their report however states that by 2036 the country will require 148,317 beds, a 55% increase.
Deloitte calculates that to match this increase, 375 new hospital beds need to be built every month. Nationally at present there are virtually no new beds being built and this has significant ramifications for the aged care sector and older Australians.
The opportunity to transfer a RAC resident to hospital for small or large emergencies is likely to decline, meaning aged care staff will be treating more complex health issues and emergencies.
The Grattan Institute tells us just 14% of us die in our own bed, meaning 85% die in hospital or an aged care home.
But if an older person can’t get into a hospital, will they resort to an aged care bed?
However, the number of aged care beds per thousand people is declining too.
The chart below reveals that between 2014 and 2023 the number of aged care beds declined by 15% per thousand people.
The shrinkage will continue as the ageing population increases while the number of new aged care beds being built has stalled.
Here at The SOURCE we can identify just 20 new aged care homes are ready to start construction, while with the development approvals required, most other building projects will take five to seven years to deliver additional beds.
The likely outcome is a significant increase in complex home care, requiring skilled nursing staff, another major supply challenge.
The Deloitte study provides two related solutions. The first is technology in the home and the second is a strategy of transitioning from servicing illness to servicing better health and wellness to reduce the demand on medical services.
The timeframe to achieve this transition Deloitte predicts at 10 years. This requires intent by unnamed providers.
There is no real solution on the horizon.
