New Aged Care and Seniors Minister Sam Rae and Health and Aged Care Minister Mark Butler bowed to political pressure yesterday (Wednesday), announcing 20,000 additional Home Care Packages will be released before 1 November, with another 20,000 to follow by year’s end.
It makes for a powerful headline – but the uncomfortable truth is that more Packages alone won’t fix home care’s problems.
A waiting list that never shrinks
The sector knows the scale of the challenge. More than 120,000 older Australians are waiting for an assessment, while thousands more remain stuck in limbo after being approved for support but not allocated a Package – see the story of Letitia and Morrie in this edition.
And tragically, as Rae was reminded in Question Time, 5,000 families lost loved ones while they waited.
But there’s a structural problem that’s harder to explain in Parliament.
Even with 20,000 new Packages slated before November – and more to follow – natural attrition constantly chips away at supply. Based on our back-of-envelope calculations, around 13-17% of clients exit Packages each year through death or transition into residential aged care.
That adds up to 39,000-51,000 Packages recycled annually – around 3,200-4,200 per month. These returns feed back into the system, but they never keep pace with demand.
Providers under pressure
This attrition also hits small and mid-sized providers hardest. With client numbers eroded each month and little inflow until November, their viability is fragile.
While some providers are trying to hang on, others are weighing mergers, partnerships or sales just to survive. And even when the new Packages land, the backlog means the queue will remain a defining pressure point.
Financial sustainability is just as critical. StewartBrown’s latest survey shows the sector still prices too low to be investable. With price caps due in 2026, they argue the real solution is a floor price – one that ensures basic costs are covered while still allowing innovation in models of care.
A productivity problem
The political debate has rightly focused on human stories of suffering and loss. But unless providers can run viable businesses, there will be no services for those stories to improve.
As we report in this issue, operators are warning of further exits and the “slow death” of CHSP.
At its heart, this is a productivity crisis: too few workers, underpriced services, and a funding model that can’t keep pace with demand.
The way forward
New Packages will help. They may even reduce the horror stories in the short term. But without deeper reform – on pricing, on assessments, and on provider viability – the sector risks simply replacing one waiting list with another.
It’s one of the key reasons we’re championing Plan T – Transformation – to address the structural flaws holding the sector back and to enable providers to operate efficiently, sustainably, and deliver care to more people.
If Support at Home is to deliver on its promise, it must address not only access, but also sustainability. Otherwise, both older Australians and the providers who care for them will remain caught between a rock and a hard place.
