Home care shifts beneath the market share numbers: KPMG webinar
Following KPMG’s finding that the top 25 home care providers have stabilised their market share at 40.5%, a webinar unpacking the report suggests the real change is happening beneath the numbers.
Hosted by KPMG Director, Health, Ageing & Human Services, Lauren Ffrost, who co-authored its 2026 Aged Care Market Analysis, the session featured:
- Jessica Evans, Acting First Assistant Secretary of the Aged Care Market and Stewardship Division at the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing;
- Helen Sutherland, Partner, Mergers & Acquisitions at KPMG Australia; and
- Luke Traini, CEO of Trilogy Care, now the second-largest home care provider by Government funding in Australia.
A broader view of the market
All three panellists pointed to fundamental changes emerging under Support at Home.
While the report highlights a fragmented market and new entrants, Jessica said Government is assessing the sector across a broader set of measures.
“It’s not just about the number of providers or the overall financial position,” she said, pointing to quality, access, workforce and sustainability.
“You can’t have high financial performance and poor quality outcomes.”
She also said the reforms are designed to enable new providers and innovation, allowing the market to respond to changing consumer preferences.
Providers are already seeing the impact on the ground.
Luke said co-contributions are making clients more price-sensitive, with greater scrutiny on hourly rates and value.
“The hourly rate really does govern what you might have to pay,” he said.
At the same time, workforce remains a constraint – but is now reshaping how care is delivered, forcing providers to rethink operating models and productivity.
Capital, capability and execution
From an investment perspective, Helen said demand remains strong for high-quality providers, with buyer interest exceeding available assets in some cases.
But sale outcomes do vary, with capability and performance determining which providers attract capital – and which fall behind.
Operationally, the environment remains tight, with scale and systems highlighted as key.
“There’s probably a thousand ways every day for you to lose money in this sector,” Luke said.
Technology is also expected to play a larger role, with 2026 tipped as a turning point for AI deployment to reduce administrative burden and improve efficiency.
“2026 is when we’re going to see the rubber hit the road,” Luke added.
With Support at Home still bedding down, the panellists agreed the impact of reform will not be evenly felt.
As Jessica noted, “the experience will be different across the sector”.
Watch this space then.
