Aged care demand is racing ahead of supply, and even 300,000 extra Home Care Packages won’t bridge it. If we keep treating symptoms, the system will drown in its own success. It’s time to flatten frailty early – or keep building beds you’ll never staff.

If we can delay the number of older Australians entering residential aged care by six months, we need 25% less beds – which means we don’t need any more beds. The job now is to shrink the number of people who need them in the first place.

Prevention must move from the margins of aged care policy to the centre. Support at Home will shape behaviour – and, if used well, can help bend the curve.

Operators say they expect greater use of clinical and allied health,