The numbers don’t lie: we are headed for a shortfall of aged care and hospital beds unlike anything we’ve seen before.
As we report in this issue, in Western Australia alone, around 200 hospital beds a day are being occupied by older people who don’t belong there. Not because they’re too sick to go home – but because there’s nowhere else to go. No residential aged care bed. No home care support. No help.
And while the WA State Government has promised more concessional beds, they won’t be ready until 2027. That’s a long time to wait if you’re 88, frail, and stuck in a hospital ward.
The Federal Government also says it’s committed to building more aged care beds. But with the cost of delivering a new residential bed now tipping $600,000, it’s no surprise operators aren’t lining up to build them. Especially when the returns don’t stack up – and the site lifespan is 30 years or more.
This is the economic reality underpinning Australia’s aged care crisis: the Baby Boomers are coming, but the beds are not. See the latest data on building activity below.
And unless something changes fast, we’re looking at a future where only those with the most complex care needs – or the deepest pockets – will be able to access an aged care bed at all.
Where does this leave us?
The answer, in many cases, will be at home.
More families will be forced to care for loved ones themselves. Some will turn to private care or Hospital in the Home programs. But with close to 88,000 people still waiting for the right Home Care Package, even that solution is a stretch. Services are rationed. And the pressure – emotional, physical, and financial – will fall squarely on individuals.
This is not sustainable.
If we can’t fund more aged care beds – or we won’t – then we must take urgent steps to reduce the number of people who need them. That means investing in preventative care and wellness. That means catching frailty early.
Denmark did it back in 1987. Today, every Dane from age 82 must have a monitored wellness plan in place. Why can’t we do the same?
As Anglicare Sydney CEO Simon Miller noted at the 2024 LEADERS SUMMIT, Canada has half the aged care beds of Australia – and residents stay in care for half as long – see below. If we matched that, we’d halve our workforce needs too.
The Government says it’s thinking long-term. But frailty doesn’t wait.
We need to act now – or prepare to pay the price.
WELLNESS, DIGITAL HOSPITAL IN THE HOME AND THE DENMARK MODEL OF PROACTIVE INTERVENTION