More grim news for our UK counterparts.
A new analysis is predicting that the UK death toll from COVID-19 will climb to 59,000 by the end of June – just under two-and-a-half weeks away – with 34,000 or 57% of those deaths in aged care homes.
The study – by the major healthcare business consultancy LaingBuisson – is based on data from the Office for National Statistics, as well as the analyst’s own modelling of the number of care home resident deaths likely to have occurred in the absence of the pandemic.
Study author William Laing, says the ‘excess deaths’ of UK aged care residents during the pandemic is “a scandal which is just emerging”.
“At the peak of the crisis, there were widespread reports of normal medical support simply being removed from care homes,” he said. “Ambulances would not turn up to take emergencies to hospital, since capacity had to be kept clear for COVID cases.”
“In-person GP house calls were replaced with occasional telephone calls. In the absence of any expectation of active medical support, care home residents were encouraged to consider what instructions they should give in the case of serious illness from whatever cause, with many opting for DNR (Do Not Resuscitate).”
“At the same time, care homes were being asked by NHS Trusts to accept discharges without knowing the coronavirus status of the patient concerned. Meanwhile, shortages of PPE [personal protective equipment] must have aided transmission.”
“The scenario described here – absence of normal medical care exacerbated by PPE shortages – is the only one that can satisfactorily explain the concentration of collateral damage (non-COVID ‘excess’ deaths) as well as COVID deaths within the care home population.”
The UK Government has faced mounting criticism in recent weeks over its decision making around care homes during the pandemic.
Public Health England (PHE) had warned in February that elderly people should not be discharged from hospitals to care homes if there was a serious risk of passing on the virus.
But providers were told in mid-March that they should be taking in discharged hospital patients – with over 25,000 patients moved from hospital to care homes between mid-March and mid-April regardless or not they had tested negative – until the guidance was changed to ensure patients leaving hospital were tested.
As we covered here, Sweden has already declared an inquiry into deaths in its aged care homes during the pandemic.
Will the UK sector face a similar investigation?
