With just 36 new cases confirmed on Tuesday, infectious diseases specialists say Australia has done “very well” in flattening the infection curve, but have warned COVID-19 was likely to remain in the community at some level.
“It’d be nice if we had no cases, but unfortunately I don’t think that’s likely,” ANU infectious diseases physician and microbiologist Professor Peter Collignon said. “There is so much relatively mild symptom disease that I think it’s here for a while.”
“No country in the world has eradicated it completely so far.”
Professor Collingnon (pictured) also said the number of people with mild or asymptomatic cases increasing the rate of community transmission also means restrictions such as closures of pubs and restaurants could stay in place until at least the end of winter.
A separate study by Harvard, published in the journal Science, has also concluded that a one-time lockdown will not be enough to bring the pandemic under control and that secondary peaks could be bigger than the current one without continued restrictions.
In the absence of new treatments, a vaccine, or increasing critical care capacity, social distancing measures could need to be in place until at least 2022 – over 18 months away, the study says.
“Infections spread when there are two things: infected people and susceptible people. Unless there is some enormously larger amount of herd immunity than we’re aware of … the majority of the population is still susceptible,” Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-author of the study, said.
The predictions raise concerns about guidance for aged care operators. CEOs tells us they are hoping to lift restrictions on visitors as soon as it is safe to do so.
But will there ever be a time when operators can be assured that residents will not be at risk?
The pandemic could signal a new era where visitor screening, temperature checks and the use of PPE is simply the norm – and that will come at an increased cost.
