Worrying evidence from the head of the outbreak modelling group at Imperial College London.
Professor Neil Ferguson has told the Lords science committee by video link that coronavirus cases will remain steady until September because of the infections that are ‘spilling’ out of the country’s aged care homes and hospitals.
Professor Ferguson – who was forced to quit as a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) after breaking social distancing rules – said infected staff were carrying the virus out of the workplace into the community.
“If you can drive the infection rates low in those institutional settings, you drive the infection low in the community as a whole,” he said.
While the Professor said it was unclear what impact the UK easing restrictions would have on the spread of the virus, he warned there was unlikely to be any decrease in the rate of community transmission for the next three months.
“I suspect that under any scenario, the level of transmission and number of cases will remain relatively flat between now and September, short of very big policy changes or behaviour changes in the community,” he said.
Around 16,000 aged care residents are now believed to have died from COVID-19 in the UK, with 38% of homes in England and 59% in Scotland experiencing outbreaks.
