A whimper of a Budget, understandably
Federal Health and Aged Care Minister Mark Butler says Australia needs a new aged care home every three days for the next 20 years – but Tuesday night’s Federal Budget acknowledged that will not happen.
Yes, aged care spending will rise from $41.4 billion today to $50.7 billion by 2029-30, but this is business as usual. Beyond the headlines, there was little in this Budget that changes the trajectory of the system.
No major restructuring to improve provider viability.
No significant increase in Support at Home packages for 2026-27 beyond the 24,000 already promised in December 2024.
Refinements, not reform
Home care received a mention with an almost humorous headline: ‘Improving Access to Home Care’ – but it doesn’t. 200,000 people will still be waiting for access as they are today.
The Government did announce $389.8 million over four years for Support at Home “refinements” – assessments, hardship applications and end-of-life pathways. It does not shift any positive needle. See below.
Particularly when new wait time data quietly released before the Budget shows the average wait for residential aged care is now 13 months, while Support at Home sits at 12 months – see my colleague Caroline Egan’s article here.
This is not a future problem. This is a system that is under strain now – before the real demographic wave arrives.
A crisis everyone can see
As we detail in this week’s special edition of SATURDAY, occupancy across residential aged care is effectively full, hospitals are backing up, and providers still cannot make the numbers work on new developments.
The Government says 5,000 new beds a year are coming under its new incentives.
But many of those homes may not open for three to five years – if they are built at all.
Construction costs keep rising while returns remain marginal and red tape is increasing.
Meanwhile, the demand just keeps accelerating.
Aged care and fuel both in crisis
This Budget was never going to solve the sector’s problems – but the system is now starting to resemble Australia’s fuel crisis.
Everyone knew supply was tightening – but meaningful action kept getting delayed because the system had not quite broken yet.
This Budget is the same. Repeating Minister Butler, we need one new aged home every three days but this not in the Budget or even an acknowledgement.
We can import fuel – what Australia can’t import is aged care beds, dementia services or carers once the system runs out of capacity.
In Friday’s edition of SATURDAY, we look at what happens next – and the system requires far more than incremental funding increases if Australia is to avoid a full-scale ageing crisis.
